“My message to you, my European colleagues, and particularly to the United States, is that
if we don’t engage in a more cohesive and dignified foreign policy, especially with regard to
Global South countries such as India, we will lose,” said Finnish President Alexander
Stubb.
“You have countries like India and China powerful economies. You cannot talk to them in that way. Attempting to weaken their leadership is a mistake. The colonial era is over.” Said
Vladimir Putin
When I read these two statements, it makes me think India has become a powerful and significant country. It is gaining influence in Europe, shown by its purchase of Rafale fighter jets from France. At the same time, India is exporting goods to Ukraine and carefully managing its relationships with different countries. “In the Indo-Pacific, Australia is trying to keep good relations with China. At the same time, the U.S.-led AUKUS partnership forced Australia to cancel its submarine deal with France. As a result, the Australian government will pay the French shipbuilder, Naval Group, $835 million as compensation.”
India and Australia are both facing growing pressure from the United States to change their foreign and defence policies, but both are handling the situation carefully. They are trying to protect their national interests and maintain independent while still managing close ties with Washington.
For India, the turning point came after Operation Sindoor in May 2025. In response to terror attacks from Pakistan, India carried out deep cross-border strikes, marking a major shift in its foreign policy. This showed that New Delhi is willing to defend its red lines even under international pressure. The U.S. pushed India to agree to a ceasefire after the strikes implying there would be trade benefits if the conflict ended and later imposed heavy tariffs on Indian exports because India continued to buy oil from Russia.
Indian officials called these measures “unfair and discriminatory,” especially since China imports far more Russian oil than India does but faces no similar penalties.
Despite these challenges, India has taken a balanced approach. Much of the Russian crude it imports is refined into diesel domestically and exported. In July 2025, India became Ukraine’s top diesel supplier, providing 15.5 percent of its total imports, even as the Russia-Ukraine war continues. At the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in China, India sent a clear message that it wants to follow its own path. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said, “India seeks a multipolar world order, one where nations retain the sovereign right to make choices that serve their people’s interests.” Analysts see this as a sign that India wants to maintain good relations with all major powers but avoid fully joining any single bloc. The SCO platform also highlighted India’s growing economic strength as trade with Central Asia expands and its role in global energy supplies grows.
While India is asserting its independence, Australia faces a different kind of U.S. pressure. Washington wants Canberra to sharply increase its defence budget to meet regional security challenges. Australia currently spends about 2.3 percent of its GDP around AUD 67 billion on defence, up from 2.0 percent a few years ago. The U.S. wants this raised immediately to 3.5 percent of GDP, adding about AUD 40 billion a year, nearly the size of Australia’s entire aged care budget. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has resisted rushing into such a big increase, saying defence spending should be based on Australia’s actual needs rather than external pressure. His government plans a gradual rise from 2.3 percent to around 2.5 percent of GDP over the next decade.
Albanese’s recent visit to China reflects Australia’s aim to balance its “unbreakable” U.S. partnership with stable relations with Beijing, which is vital for trade and regional stability.
If Australia did raise defence spending to 3.5 percent of GDP, it would become one of the top nine military spenders in the world, on par with the United Kingdom and ahead of France and Taiwan. Domestic issues such as disaster recovery, aged care, and social programs make such rapid increases difficult. In comparison, India is taking a more assertive diplomatic path, balancing relations with the U.S., Russia, China, and Ukraine while protecting its trade interests. Australia is being more cautious, focusing on keeping security strong without harming economic ties, especially with China.
The signing of the Geelong Treaty on 26 July 2025 between Australia and the UK, without any U.S. representatives present, signals an important shift in Western security dynamics. Although the agreement falls under the AUKUS framework. Both countries represent a wider trend among middle powers in the Indo-Pacific, trying to avoid being forced into choosing between the U.S. and China while keeping control over their own policies. With global military spending up by 94 percent since the Cold War, both India and Australia are adjusting their strategies to meet growing security challenges. For India, this means economic pragmatism and foreign policy independence, while for Australia it means balancing U.S. expectations with regional realities. In the coming decade, the decisions made by both countries will play a major role in shaping the strategic future of the Indo-Pacific.
Leave a comment