Safeguarding Sovereignty in the Northeast: India’s Response to Growing Foreign Interests and Regional Instabilities”

Deepinder Singh                                                     Published -september 09, 2024 11:30 am IST-NEW DELHI

India’s Foreign Policy Towards Its Neighbors: A Focus on Recent Developments in the Northeast

India’s foreign policy, especially concerning its northeastern neighbors, has always been a key aspect of its broader strategic objectives. The northeastern region, with its complex geopolitical positioning, presents both opportunities and challenges for India. The states of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, and Tripura share borders with China, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, making the region pivotal to India’s security, trade, and diplomatic efforts. Recent developments highlight the shifting dynamics in the region, compounded by external influences, including growing Western interest.

The Strategic Importance of Northeast India

Northeast India, bordering China, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, holds immense strategic value for India’s national security and regional diplomacy. Its unique location and diverse cultural landscape make it a focal point in India’s foreign policy. For decades, the region has been crucial in dealing with cross-border tensions, insurgencies, and fostering economic partnerships with neighboring countries.

Relations with China: Arunachal Pradesh as a Flashpoint

India’s relationship with China is marked by longstanding border disputes, especially concerning Arunachal Pradesh, which China claims as part of its territory. The 2020 Galwan Valley clash significantly strained relations, pushing India to ramp up infrastructural and defense measures along the border. India’s development of roads, airfields, and defense posts in the region aims to counter China’s growing assertiveness.

Furthermore, India’s deepening strategic partnerships with Western allies like the U.S., Japan, and Australia, through forums like the Quad, seek to balance China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Northeast India’s proximity to the border with China makes it central to India’s defense strategy against possible Chinese incursions.

Relations with Bangladesh: Cooperation and Challenges

India shares a substantial border with Bangladesh, particularly in the northeastern states like Assam and West Bengal. While relations have generally been positive, managing border security, trade, and refugee issues remains critical. The 2015 India-Bangladesh Land Boundary Agreement resolved several territorial disputes, but challenges such as the influx of refugees into Assam and conflicts over the Teesta River water-sharing agreement persist.

India’s role in supporting Bangladesh’s Awami League government, perceived as a stabilizing force against extremism, has drawn criticism from the Bangladeshi opposition. Yet, economic and infrastructure collaborations, including cross-border trade routes, continue to strengthen bilateral ties.

a senior BNP leader, criticizes India’s policy toward Bangladesh, stating it has failed due to an “ecosystem” of powerful civil servants, diplomats, journalists, and ideologues who focus on security without understanding the political landscape. He accuses India of enabling the Awami League’s victories in the 2014, 2018, and 2024 elections, all of which he claims were fraudulent. Chowdhury suggests India’s backing of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina undermined Bangladesh’s democracy and failed to grasp the public’s sentiments. He also commends Mamata Banerjee for supporting protesters in Bangladesh and reflecting on Indian policy changes.

Relations with Myanmar: Security and Connectivity

India’s relationship with Myanmar has been shaped by both economic interests and security concerns. The northeastern states of Manipur and Nagaland face the challenge of insurgent groups crossing over from Myanmar. India has been collaborating with Myanmar to strengthen border security and control insurgent activities.

On the economic front, India is working to enhance regional connectivity through projects like the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, which aims to boost trade with Southeast Asia. Additionally, India has invested in humanitarian aid and development initiatives in Myanmar, particularly in border areas impacted by conflict.

 Relations with Bhutan: Stability Under Pressure

India’s long-standing relationship with Bhutan has traditionally been strong, based on shared political, economic, and strategic interests. India has played a vital role in Bhutan’s economic development, particularly through hydropower projects. However, China’s increasing interest in Bhutan, exemplified by the 2017 Doklam standoff, poses new challenges for India. Bhutan’s strategic location makes it essential for India to maintain a strong, supportive relationship to counter China’s growing regional presence.

visit of modi ti Bhutan (March 22-23, 2024

Western Influence in Northeast India: A Growing Presence

In recent years, Western countries and international organisations have become increasingly involved in Northeast India, primarily through development aid and advocacy for human rights. This growing Western influence adds another layer of complexity to India’s foreign policy and regional strategy.

Western Involvement in Human Rights

• Several Western nations and international organisations, such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, have raised concerns about human rights issues in Northeast India. These concerns often center around the use of force by Indian security agencies in managing insurgencies and ethnic conflicts in states like Manipur and Nagaland. Reports of human rights abuses, extrajudicial killings, and heavy-handed security measures have drawn international attention and prompted diplomatic friction between India and Western nations.

• Western scrutiny has forced India to balance its need for internal security with addressing human rights concerns. This has occasionally led to increased pressure on the Indian government to adopt more conciliatory approaches towards conflict resolution in the region, while maintaining its territorial integrity and sovereignty.

 Development Aid and Economic Influence

• Western countries have also been involved in funding development projects across Northeast India. This engagement ranges from infrastructure development to social programs aimed at improving education, healthcare, and livelihoods. While these projects are beneficial to local development, they are also seen as part of broader geopolitical strategies.
• Increased Western investment in the region could potentially impact India’s foreign policy, particularly if these efforts conflict with India’s goals of maintaining sovereignty and regional security. Western aid, often tied to conditions related to governance and human rights, can create challenges for India’s domestic policy-making in Northeast India, complicating its relations with neighboring countries like China and Myanmar.

 Is India at Risk of Losing Bhutan or Sikkim to Chinese Influence?

As China continues to expand its influence across South Asia, India must consider the possibility of losing key allies such as Bhutan or Sikkim. Nepal’s recent tilt toward China, particularly through its involvement in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), serves as a warning. While Bhutan has resisted China’s overtures, particularly during the 2017 Doklam standoff, it remains under considerable pressure.

Bhutan’s reliance on India for economic support, particularly in hydropower, has so far kept it aligned with New Delhi. However, should India fail to effectively counter China’s economic and diplomatic advances, Bhutan’s position could shift. Similarly, Sikkim, though integrated into India since 1975, remains geographically vulnerable to Chinese influence. Ensuring continued development and political integration of Sikkim is critical to maintaining stability.

Conclusion: Balancing Foreign Influence and Regional Interests

India’s foreign policy towards its northeastern neighbors is shaped by a complex interplay of security, economic, and diplomatic factors. While India has traditionally maintained strong relationships with countries like Bhutan and Myanmar, external pressures from China and the West introduce new challenges. Western influence, particularly in the realms of human rights and development aid, adds another layer of complexity to India’s already intricate foreign policy landscape.

A critical question arises: Has India reached a point where it risks losing strategic allies like Bhutan or Sikkim to Chinese influence, as Nepal has drifted toward Beijing?** The evolving geopolitical dynamics in the region require India to adopt a proactive, balanced approach to safeguard its interests in the Northeast and beyond.